Meezamuka - Candidate Transferable Voting - Candidate Transfer Steps - Run Statistics

For more information about Candidate Transferable Voting, consult https://meezamuka.wordpress.com/2020/12/15/ctv/. A large table of statistics already generated can be found at https://www.meezamuka.com/ctv/ctss/.

https://meezamuka.wordpress.com/2020/12/15/ctv/ - WP - Candidate Transferable Voting
https://www.meezamuka.com/ctv/ - Main Page - Candidate Transferable Voting
- https://www.meezamuka.com/ctv/ctsr/ - Run Simulations - Candidate Transferable Voting
- https://www.meezamuka.com/ctv/ctss/ - Table of Simulations - Candidate Transferable Voting
https://www.meezamuka.com/ - Meezamuka

Run Statistics

Here, you can run a large number of simulated Candidate Transfer Voting elections to collect statistics about the number of candidate transfer steps. Each candidate transfer step is a period when candidates no longer in contention and still have transferable votes after processing their automatic transfer lists are requested to transfer their transferable votes to other candidates still in contention. These statistics help estimate how long it will take after the votes are initially tallied before the final results are known. For example, if the number of candidate transfer cycles, is 3 and the candidates have 5 hours to complete their transfers, 15 hours will be spent in candidate transfer cycles before the election is resolved. The administrators of the election may want to use these statistics when determining how much time candidates will be allowed to complete their transfers.

Instructions

Enter the parameters as follows.

Number of Seats - Enter the number of open seats.
Number of Candidates - Enter the number of candidates initially in contention.
Length of Automatic Transfer List - Each candidate will have a randomly-generated automatic transfer list of this length.
Maximum Votes Per Candidate - Each candidate will initially be assigned a random number of votes between 0 and one less than this value.
Probability of Discarding Votes - Occasionally a candidate may choose not to transfer their transferrable votes to other candidates still in contention. This is the probability that a candidate will choose to discard the votes instead of transfer them.
Seats per Options - Normally, this value will always be left at 0%. When a candidate chooses to transfer votes, this is the percentage of current seats in contention with respect to the maximum number of candidates in contention, starting with the most electable, that a candidate may choose to transfer to. For example, if it were set at 25% and the current number of seats in contention is 3, then the candidate may transfer only to the top 12 candidates currently in contention (i.e. those with the most current votes and, thus, most likely to win). Candidate Transfer Voting allows candidates to transfer votes to any of the candidates in contention, so this is normally left at 0%.
Number of Tests - Enter the number of tests to run. The larger the number, the more accurate the generated statistics will be. But a large number can take a long time and your web browser may complain about this page not responding.
Percentage of Outliers - Statistics (both mean and standard deviation) are reported for all tests run. However, it may be interesting to see what the statistics look like for the best 5% and worst 5% of cases. Enter the percentage here for the size of these edge cases. Note that the main statistics will include all tests-- including the specified outliers.

Once these parameters are entered, click the button, [Run Simulation]. Then be patient, it may take several seconds or maybe minutes to complete the tests. Your computer may seem choked down as it is busy performing the calculations.

When the simulation is finished, the statistical results will then appear. The statistics are as follows.

All Results - mean (x̄) and standard deviation (σ) of the number of candidate transfer steps for all tests performed.
Lowest - mean (x̄) and standard deviation (σ) of the number of candidate transfer steps for the percentage of tests (Percentage of Tests) with the lowest number of candidate transfer steps.
Highest - mean (x̄) and standard deviation (σ) of the number of candidate transfer steps for the percentage of tests (Percentage of Tests) with the highest number of candidate transfer steps.

Run a Simulation

Simulation Parameters
Number of Seats:
Number of Candidates:
Length of Automatic Transfer List:
Maximum Votes Per Candidate:
Probability of Discarding Votes:	%
Seats per Options:	%
Number of Tests:
Percentage for Outliers:	%

Number of Candidate Transfer Steps per Election
All Results:		Lowest:		Highest:
x̄	σ	x̄	σ	x̄	σ

Note that if Length of Automatic Transfer List is set to non-zero, each candidate will have a randomly assigned automatic transfer list of that length. This may produce better or worse performance than real world scenerios where the candidates tend cluster into political factions. If at least one candidate from each minor political faction includes a major candidate in the automatic transfer list, then the election should produce a lower number of candidate transfer steps than this simulation. However, if the candidates from minor political factions never or almost never include a candidate from a major political faction in the automatic transfer list, then the election may produce a higher number of candidate transfer steps than this simulation.